RISK EVALUATION IN INFORMATION SYSTEMS USING PROBABILISTIC MODEL

Автор: Ajit Singh
Организация: Department of Computer Science, Patna Women's College Bihar, INDIA

Категория:

Ключевые слова: information system, distribution, risk, random variable
Аннотация. The paper constructs continuous and discrete distribution laws, used to assess risks in information systems. Generalized expressions for continuous distribution laws with maximum entropy are obtained. It is shown that in the general case the entropy depends also on the type of moments used to determine the numerical characteristics of the distribution law. Also, probabilistic models have been developed to analyze the sequence of independent trials with three outcomes. Expressions for their basic numerical characteristics are obtained, as well as for calculating the probabilities of occurrence of the corresponding events.

Библиография:

1. Burkov V., Novikov D., Shchepkin A. Control Mechanisms for Ecological-Economic Systems. Berlin: Springer, 2015. – 174 p.
2. Kuznecov N.A., Kul'ba V.V., Mikrin E.A., Kovalevskij S.S., Pavlov B.V., Kosjachenko S.A., Malineckij G.G., Arhipova N.I., Kul'ba A.V., Volkov A.E., Shelkov A.B., Vlasov S.A., Kononov D.A., Shubin A.N., Chernov I.V., Gladkov Ju.M. Informacionnaja bezopasnost' sistem organizacionnogo upravlenija. Teoreticheskie osnovy [Information security of organizational management systems. Theoretical basis]. V 2-h tomah. Tom 1. M.:Nauka, 2006. – 495 p.
3. Kuznecov N.A., Kul'ba V.V., Mikrin E.A., Kovalevskij S.S., Pavlov B.V., Kosjachenko S.A., Malineckij G.G., Arhipova N.I., Kul'ba A.V., Volkov A.E., Shelkov A.B., Vlasov S.A., Kononov D.A., Shubin A.N., Chernov I.V., Gladkov Ju.M. Informacionnaja bezopasnost' sistem organizacionnogo upravlenija. Teoreticheskie osnovy [Information security of organizational management systems. Theoretical basis]. V 2-h tomah. Tom 2. M.: Nauka, 2006. – 437 p.
4. Gromov Yu.Yu., Ivanovskiy M.A., Ivanova O.G., Yakovlev A.V. Analiz i sintez struktur informatsionnykh tselenapravlennykh system [Analysis and synthesis of structures of information-oriented systems] - Saarbryuken (Germaniya): LAP LAMBERT Academic Publishing. – 2015. – 164 p.
5. Shul'c V.L., Kul'ba V.V., Shelkov A.B., Chernov I.V., Somov D.S. Upravlenie tehnogennoj bezopasnost'ju na osnove scenarnogo i indikatornogo podhodov [Managing technogenic safety based on scenario and indicator approaches]. M.: IPU RAN, 2013. – 116 p.
6. Shul'c V.L., Kul'ba V.V., Shelkov A.B., Chernov I.V. Metody scenarnogo analiza ugroz jeffektivnomu funkcionirovaniju system organizacionnogo upravlenija [Methods of scenario analysis of threats to the effective functioning of organizational management systems] // Trendy i upravlenie. - 2013. – No 1. - P. 6-30. DOI: 10.7256/2307-9118.2013.01.2.
7. Gromov Yu.Yu., Ivanovskiy M.A., Didrikh V.E., Ivanova O.G., Martem'yanov Yu.F. Metody analiza informatsionnykh system [Methods of analysis of information systems]. Tambov; M.; SPb.; Baku; Vena; Gamburg: Izd-vo MINTS «Nobelistika», 2012. – 220p.
8. Gromov Yu.Yu., Karpov I.G. Dal''nejshee razvitie sushhestvujushhih predstavlenij ob osnovnyh formah zakonov raspredelenij i chislovyh harakteristik sluchajnyh velichin dlja reshenija zadach informacionnoj bezopasnosti [Further development of existing representations on main forms of laws of distribution and numerical characteristics of random values for solving the problems of information security] // Informacija i bezopasnost'. - 2010. - T. 13. - No 3. - P. 459-462
9. Teoriya informatsionnykh protsessov i system [Theory of information processes and systems] / Yu. Yu. Gromov, V. E. Didrikh, O. G. Ivanova, V. G. Odnol'ko. – Tambov : Izd-vo FGBOU VPO «TGTU», 2014. – 172 p.
10. Gromov Yu. Yu. Generalized probabilistic description of homogeneous flows of events for solving informational security problems / Y.Y. Gromov, I.G. Karpov, Y.V. Minin, O.G. Ivanova // Journal of Theoretical and Applied Information Technology. 2016. - T. 87. - № 2. - P. 250-254.
11. Gnedenko B.V. Kurs teorii veroyatnostey [Course of probability theory]. - M.: Nauka, 1988. - 448 p.
12. Levin B.R. Teoreticheskiye osnovy statisticheskoy radiotekhniki [Theoretical bases of statistical radio engineering]. – M.: Radio i svyaz', 1989.
13. Veroyatnost' i matematicheskaya statistika: entsiklopediya [Probability and mathematical statistics: encyclopedia] / Gl. red. YU.V. Prokhorov. – M.: Bol'shaya Rossiyskaya entsiklopediya, 1999. – 910 p.
14. Odnomernyye diskretnyye raspredeleniya [One-dimensional discrete distributions] / N.L. Dzhonson, S. Kots, A. Kemp. – M.: BINOM. Laboratoriya znaniy, 2010. – 559p.
15. Vadzinskiy R.N. Spravochnik po veroyatnostnym raspredeleniyam [Handbook of probability distributions]. – SPb.: Nauka, 2001. – 296 p.